Across the globe, more and more people are turning to city-center living. This trend spans developing economies and Western markets. In this report, we explore the trend’s impact on retail product categories and retail formats.
Across the globe, more and more people are turning to city-center living. This migration encompasses rural to urban movement in fast-developing economies such as China, younger people moving to city areas in Western economies, and a resurgence in city-center living among more affluent consumers in major cities such as New York and London.
Perhaps urban living’s greatest impact on consumer goods industries will be that it drives an incremental shift from spending on retail to spending on services. Emerging service categories such as car-sharing clubs, product rentals, subscriptions and on-demand fulfillment stand to gain, as do more established categories such as home maintenance and leisure services. Factors supporting the shift to services include the limited space available in many urban residences; the critical mass of population, on which the feasibility of many of these services depend; and the typically connected nature of urban populations.
We see any sustained shift toward spending on services as a threat to retailers. A second threat is that retailers will need to make changes in order to cater to the demands of urban consumers. When urban shoppers do spend at retail, they will increasingly expect retailers to offer greater convenience at minimal additional cost. We are moving from a retail model where consumers put in much of the effort—including driving to a store, browsing the aisles in a large-format shop, and picking and packing their own purchases—to one where consumers expect retailers to put in the legwork, including getting products to them quickly.
Below, we summarize the major product categories and retail formats that are likely to gain and lose from a sustained trend of urbanization.
Worldwide, more and more people are turning to city-center living. This shift encompasses several subtrends:
In this report, we outline the product and service categories that are enjoying growth on the back of these population shifts, and we examine the retail formats and services that are likely to see stronger demand if the urbanization trend continues. Our observations focus particularly on the US and the UK. Supporting data on urbanization are included in an appendix.
1. More Spending on Services
Perhaps urban living’s greatest impact on consumer goods industries will be that it drives an incremental shift from spending on retail purchases in favor of spending on product rentals, subscription services, on-demand fulfillment and leisure services. Factors supporting this shift in spending include the space limitations urban dwellers face; the critical mass of population that urbanization brings, which makes many of these services feasible; and the connected nature of urban populations.
Urbanization looks set to benefit a number of emerging service categories that are based on paying for something only when it is needed and on consumer demand for immediacy and convenience, including:
Additionally, We see growing urbanization as benefiting other, more traditional service sectors, too:
In general, the retail sector faces threats from the urban-living trend, as city dwellers are likely to spend more on services. Everyday categories such as grocery are likely to lose spending share to more easily accessible food-service providers, while bigger-ticket categories such as cars are likely to be hit by urbanites choosing to rent such items only when they need to instead of buying them. Within retail, the operators that are best equipped to cater to urban consumers are those that can offer rapid fulfilment or tap markets such as food-service or product rental.
2. Spending to Combat Pollution
As more people move to cities, they will face the effects of breathing polluted air—and the forecasts make for grim reading. In 2016, the OECD estimated that, by 2030, some 4.1 million deaths will be caused by outdoor air pollution, which includes emissions from vehicles, industry and energy generation. That figure is up from an estimated 2.9 million related deaths in 2010. In the US, some 99,000 people are forecast to die from outdoor air pollution in 2030, up from an estimated 93,000 in 2010.
The OECD also forecasts a surge in the number of people diagnosed with bronchitis and asthma due to outdoor air pollution, which will bring associated costs in terms of healthcare and lost working days. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington says that ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer and lower respiratory infections are the most common causes of death from outdoor air pollution.
Growing awareness of the risks associated with air pollution is pressuring governments to take action to limit it, but it is also driving the expansion of categories such as air purifiers, antipollution masks and skincare products that claim to combat the effects of pollution.
Air Purifiers and Antipollution Masks
More and more urban consumers are turning to technology to purify the air they breathe. Euromonitor International says that demand for air purifiers is growing most rapidly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East and Africa regions.
Major names in electronics and consumer goods are attempting to cultivate and capture growth in the air purifier market:
China, along with India, is seeing sustained demand for air-purifying products. According to a March 2017 report from Chinese firm ZDC published on Xinfengxitong.net, the number of air purifier brands available to Chinese consumers rose from 78 in 2013 to 688 in 2015. The same source stated that Chinese spending on air purifiers grew by 23.6% in 2016, and that Xiaomi’s Mi is the top-selling air purifier brand in China, followed by Philips, Blueair and Sharp.
Antipollution face masks, such as those made by 3M and Honeywell, are also reported to be a growing market. Masks tend to fall into two categories: replaceable particulate respirators and disposable particulate respirators. Use of face masks is more common in China than in Western countries, although cyclists appear to be leading adoption of replaceable respirator masks in the West.
Data on the scale of the antipollution mask market is scarce, but according to Daxue Consulting, Chinese state media estimated that the market was worth nearly ¥4 billion ($643 million) in China in 2015. And according to Reuters, online retailer Taobao sold ¥870 million ($141 million) worth of antipollution goods such as face masks and air purifiers in 2013.
The efficacy of antipollution masks is contested, however. They need to be able to filter out particles as small as PM2.5 (i.e., particles with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less), and many disposable masks are said to fail on this measure. Also, the masks must seal tightly against the face to prevent any pollution from circumventing the filters, and few consumers are able to ensure that their masks seal properly. Greater awareness of the limitations of antipollution face masks could stymie growth, particularly in the disposable, value segment, as informed consumers tend to seek products that offer real benefits.
Skincare
Combating pollution is not just a matter of health, but of appearance, too. Products that fight the effects of air pollution are one of the hottest trends in skincare, and Clarins, Clinique, Kiehl’s, Ren and The Body Shop are among the brands that have launched antipollution product lines. The trend originated in Asia with brands such as Boroplus in India, Hua Niang in China, Etude House in South Korea, and Shiseido and Fumakilla in Japan, according to Euromonitor International.
Solutions for combating the effects of pollution on skin vary. Some products incorporate active ingredients such as plant extracts and antioxidants to counteract the effects of pollution, while others are designed to simply act as a barrier to keep pollutants out.
Mintel, which tracks new product launches, has noted the Asia-Pacific region’s importance in this market segment. The firm said that, in the first 10 months of 2016, 38% of new beauty products that carried an antipollution claim were launched in the Asia-Pacific market, up from 28% in 2015. Worldwide, only 1% of all beauty product launches in the first 10 months of 2016 carried an antipollution claim, according to Mintel. However, that share was 8% in Australia, 3% in Thailand, 2% in Japan and 2% in China. Note that these figures are for all beauty products, not just skincare products. Drilling down to skincare, in the first quarter of 2016, 79% of products launched globally carried an antipollution claim, according to Mintel data cited by CosmeticsDesign-Asia.com.
Survey data reveal that consumer concern is fueling growth in this market. According to Mintel, 61% of consumers surveyed in China said they are very concerned about PM2.5 particles. In France, 41% of women surveyed said that they agree that environmental factors such as pollution affect the skin. In the US, 14% of those surveyed said that pollution is one of the most important factors impacting their skin.
Google Trends showed a peak in the number of worldwide searches for “pollution skin” in March 2017, following an acceleration in related searches during 2016.
3. Coping with Less Space
Fewer Rooms, Smaller Spaces, Fewer Gardens
People living in cities tend to enjoy less space than their peers in smaller towns or rural areas. Data from Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics office, bear this out: in the UK, for example, the average number of rooms per person in 2015 was 1.8 for city dwellers versus 2.1 for those living in towns and suburbs and 2.2 for those living in rural areas. Eurostat records similar trends for major countries such as France and Germany, as well as for the EU in aggregate.
For some city dwellers, space is even more scarce. Microapartments and premium “co-living” developments are among the housing trends that provide residents with even less space.
We see the space limitations many urban dwellers face as fueling several trends:
More people living in city-center apartments also implies fewer consumers with gardens. Data on participation in and spending on gardening from the US National Gardening Survey and national statistics offices in the US and the UK do not yet bear out a decline in gardening: these sources suggest participation in and spending on gardening has, in aggregate, continued to grow. However, we think that any sustained, long-term shift toward city-center living will negatively impact spending on gardening and outdoor-living categories such as patio furniture and barbecue grills.
4. Cocooning to Insulate Oneself from City Life
Urban living typically means more noise—whether from traffic, neighbors or revelers. So, we see city-center living as fueling a cocooning trend, whereby consumers insulate themselves from their surroundings. Visitors to any metropolis can see this in effect on any busy urban subway system, as commuters don earphones to create their own “bubble.” We see the emergence of similar trends inside the home, with the sleep economy in particular set to gain from consumers seeking quiet, peaceful rest in noisy city environments.
Sleep Technology
A wave of new technologies promises to help consumers fall asleep more easily, wake up more gently and monitor how well they rest. Consumers can choose from an abundance of smartphone features and apps that monitor or guide their sleep, including:
Sleep-enabling hardware allows users to place devices close to their bed, to measure the bedroom environment for air and sound quality, movement and other factors that may affect sleep, or to use gentle sounds and lights to simulate sunrise when it is time to wake up. Examples of such hardware include:
Health wearables that have been created specifically to track sleep include:
An emerging trend in relaxation and sleep is the use of videos and audio clips to elicit autonomous sensory meridian response (ASMR). ASMR refers to a tingling sensation that begins on the scalp and moves down the spine and neck, making the person experiencing it relaxed and calm. Videos and audio clips in which a person narrates soothing phrases in soft tones, perhaps with background music, or guides the listener through a meditation fall under this category. In September 2016, YouTube said that there were 5.2 million videos related to ASMR on its site.
Other online media companies, such as music-streaming service Spotify, have also noticed a rise in the popularity of sleep-related searches. According to Spotify, consumers have downloaded more than 5 million recordings of sleep noise to help them fall asleep.
Investing in Furnishings to Sleep Better
New e-commerce-focused mattress brands are riding the cocooning trend to encourage consumers to invest in desirable, fashionable sleep furnishings. Casper has led this segment, building an aspirational and contemporary image for its mattresses. Casper inspires devotees to share their love for the brand on social media such as Twitter. The company has also ridden the “unboxing” trend, whereby shoppers talk through the process of opening their purchase in online videos. In short, it has built a brand that appeals to younger, style-conscious consumers.
In June 2017, Casper revealed that it had raised $170 million from investors that include Target, which made an unconfirmed $75 million investment, according to Recode. The funding round valued Casper at $750 million, according to The New York Times.
In the UK, Eve has similarly established itself as a contemporary, aspirational brand through its own direct-to-consumer website. In May 2017, Eve raised £35 million ($44 million) in an IPO on the UK’s AIM stock exchange; the IPO valued the business at £140 million ($178 million).
Both brands have diversified to adjacent categories, and both are pitched at a premium level: a double mattress from Casper costs $800, while a double mattress from Eve costs £549 ($696). As we chart below, these brands have seen a boom in the number of people searching for them on Google.
5. Expecting Retailers to Do the Work
Finally, we turn away from product categories to look at how retail formats may be impacted by the urban-living trend. We see these lifestyle shifts as accelerating the move away from a big-box store model where consumers put in much of the effort—including driving to the store, browsing the aisles in a large-format shop, and picking and packing their own purchases—to one where consumers expect retailers to put in the legwork, including bringing products to them quickly.
We expect to see the following kinds of shifts in retailing:
In short, urban living will drive demand for proximity, convenience and immediacy. The challenge for retailers is making new, urban-friendly business models as profitable as traditional ones.
Overall, retailers catering to city dwellers’ increased expectations for convenience and immediacy are likely to see costs rise significantly.
Retailers face two primary risks associated with a sustained trend toward city living:
In this section, we provide supporting data that show the increasing urbanization of populations worldwide.
In China, the proportion of the population that is living in urban areas has been growing by about one percentage point per year. Some 56% of the Chinese population lived in urban areas in 2015 (latest). However, this migration from the countryside to towns does not necessarily translate to the kind of city living that is the subject of this report.
Below, we provide more granular data on the growth of the 10 biggest cities in the US and the UK.